Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
